Prediction

Predictions are common.  We like to pretend we know what the future holds and prognosticate the out come.  Sometimes, due to superior knowledge or pattern detection we are right.  One of my undergraduate instructors was a former AF Officer.  He had a peculiar attachment to Mega Trend and non-traditional predictive analysis techniques.   I remember his PhD thesis had something to do with "ingratiation techniques for success in non-profit mission environments".  In other words "how to kiss ass to get ahead, when money doesn't matter".

I guy like me, saw a lot of potential for learning from a guy like that.  I did too.  He was one of those teachers that I tried to get as many classes with as I could.  When he left to take over as the Dean of a Graduate program, I went and took classes from them too.  Among other things he is currently doing a bang up job for the folks at the same University that the Duck Dynasty Boys are Alumni form.

He got me interested in predictive analysis techniques.  While there are practical business applications for those skills, my interest is as a hobbyist, not a professional.  I admire the professionals. 

Which is why I find this story interesting:

Democrats downplay Nate Silver's Senate projection

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is pushing back after data whiz Nate Silver projected Sunday that Republicans will win the Senate this year.

In an interview with Jon Karl on ABC's "This Week," Silver, who recently relaunched his FiveThirtyEight franchise, gave Republicans a 60-percent chance of winning a Senate majority during the 2014 midterm election cycle.

But Democrats, who have in the past lauded Silver for his analysis of polls, on Monday were skeptical of his projection this time around.

"Nate Silver and the staff at FiveThirtyEight are doing groundbreaking work, but, as they have noted, they have to base their forecasts on a scarce supply of public polls," DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil wrote in a memo Monday. "In some cases, more than half of these polls come from GOP polling outfits."

What you need to know is that Silver is using limited data with a highly refined technique system to come to his conclusions.  He know where the weakness in the methodology is.  He probably wouldn't make a call this early, but the Democrats asked him to.  The reason they asked him for his best guess, is that his best guesses are very, very good, more often than not.  Think of it like having the best bookie give you odds, not like a prophet with a divine message.

Sliver is saying the odds are in favor of the republicans in the senate.  That could be.  Obama Care sucks.  The economy sucks.  Lots of stuff sucks and some one should take the fall.  That said, I have a prediction.  If the Republicans win the house and the Senate, they will waste their chance to do any good for this country.  Even if the GOP had 100% of both houses and the Oval Office, they would blow it.  They always do.  They only time they are in favor of conservatism is when they are picking your pockets at a fund raiser. 

I didn't need a crystal ball to make that prediction.  I base it on what the GOP has always done, fundraise on the right so they can govern on the left, and pretend capitulating to enemy is the center.